壹范文档
China’s economy is set to rebound in 2023 as mobility and activity pick up after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, providing a boost to the global economy. The economy will expand 5.2 percent this year versus roughly 3 percent last year. That’s good news for China and the world as the Chinese economy is now expected to contribute a quarter of global growth this year. Even so, China still faces significant economic challenges. The contraction in real estate remains a major headwind, and there is still some uncertainty around the evolution of the virus. Longer-term, headwinds to growth include a shrinking population and slowing productivity growth.
After three years of implementing its “zero- COVID” strategy, China has dropped all COVID restrictions, but the virus is not something that will be eradicated or eliminated. People in China— and around the world—are going to be dealing with COVID in 2023 and into the future. Like everywhere else, COVID will come and go. We’re already seeing indications that cases may have peaked in major cities, but that’s going to happen at different times across the country.
The economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is another massive setback to the global economy. The toll on Ukraine is immense, but the impact stretches far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Beyond the suffering and humanitarian crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entire globaleconomy continues to feel the effects of slower growth and faster inflation. Impacts are flowing through three main channels. One, higher prices for commodities like food and energy are pushing up inflation further, in turn eroding the value of incomes and weighing on demand. Two, those most involved including neighboring economies in particular are grappling with disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances as well as an historic surge in refugee flows. And three, reduced business confidence and higher investoruncertainty weighs on asset prices, tightening financial conditions and potentially spurring capital outflows from emerging markets. Russia and Ukraine are major commodities producers, and disruptions have caused global prices to soar, especially for oil and natural gas. Food costs have jumped, with wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia make up 30 percent of global exports, reaching a record. Beyond global spillovers, countries withdirect trade, tourism, and financial exposures will feel additional pressures. Economies reliant on oil imports will see wider fiscal and trade deficits and more inflation pressure, though some exporters such as those in the Middle East and Africa may benefit from higher prices.
微信支付10元后自动下载
