生成式AI和美国工作的未来（英文）

Duringthepandemic(2019–22),theUSlabormarketsaw8.6millionoccupational shifts, 50 percent more than in the previous three-year period. Most involved people leaving food services, in-person sales, and office support for different occupations.

By2030,activitiesthataccountforupto30percentofhourscurrentlyworkedacross the US economy could be automated—a trend accelerated by generative AI. However, we see generative AI enhancing the way STEM, creative, and business and legal professionals work rather than eliminating a significant number of jobs outright. Automation’s biggest effects are likely to hit other job categories. Office support, customer service, and food service employment could continue to decline.

Federalinvestmenttoaddressclimateandinfrastructure,aswellasstructuralshifts, will also alter labor demand. The net-zero transition will shift employment away from
oil, gas, and automotive manufacturing and into green industries for a modest net gain in employment. Infrastructure projects will increase demand in construction, which is already short almost 400,000 workers today. We also see increased demand for healthcare workers as the population ages, plus gains in transportation services due to e-commerce.

Anadditional12millionoccupationaltransitionsmaybeneededby2030.Aspeople leave shrinking occupations, the economy could reweight toward higher-wage jobs. Workers in lower-wage jobs are up to 14 times more likely to need to change occupations than those in highest-wage positions, and most will need additional skills to do so successfully. Women are 1.5 times more likely to need to move into new occupations than men.

TheUnitedStateswillneedworkforcedevelopmentonafarlargerscaleaswellas more expansive hiring approaches from employers. Employers will need to hire for skills and competencies rather than credentials, recruit from overlooked populations (such as rural workers and people with disabilities), and deliver training that keeps pace with their evolving needs.