中国碳中和路径中的电气化

Since President Xi Jinping announced the carbon neutrality goal in September 2020, the world has experienced persistent ups and downs. Under the new dynamics, China reiterates its unwavering goal of achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. In 2021, China has submitted an updated version of nationally determined contributions with strengthened targets, set out the Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy, and shaped the “1+N” policy framework guiding the nationwide carbon peaking and neutrality actions.

As a non-profit charitable organization, Energy Foundation China (EF China) has been dedicated to promoting prosperity through safe and sustainable energy since its establishment in 1999. It has been consistently and strategically supporting research and policymaking that target a carbon-neutral future. To better inform the formulation and implementation of China’s Mid- Century Strategy, EF China established its flagship Long-Term Strategy for Decarbonization Task Force (LTS) in 2018, committed to exploring a multi-win low GHG emission development path for China. We hope this effort will help put China onto a trajectory of sustainable prosperity and carbon neutrality.

Up to today, the LTS has initiated three flagship projects (LTS I, II, and III), engaged more than
30 top Chinese think-tanks in over 50 high-level research projects, and formed a comprehensive research landscape covering all important sectors and thematic areas in China’s decarbonization action. Encouraged by the success of the LTS I which presented an overall framework of China’s carbon neutrality pathways in 2020, we continued deepening it by shifting its focus to China’s low- carbon transformation implementation roadmap for 2035 in LTS II, and to the technology and innovation supporting carbon neutrality in LTS III. In parallel, to introduce international perspectives, EF China has continued to collaborate with leading international think-tanks, including International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, University of Maryland, Joint Research Centre (European Union), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), 2050 Pathway Platform, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in LTS modeling and technical discussions. These frequent exchanges have empowered and served the field of climate and energy research and created a multilateral open intellectual platform for wider cooperation. Meanwhile, EF China has organized international advisory roundtables and Economists Dialogues to underpin the strategic position of carbon neutrality in China’s policymaking and to facilitate the development and mainstreaming of Carbon Neutrality Economics. Last but not least, the LTS Task Force has extended its working scope to support subnational decarbonization research and pilots in more than 15 cities and provinces, with the purpose to explore and demonstrate high-quality economic growth models that are compatible with the carbon neutrality vision.

In 2020, we proudly launched our first synthesis report featuring comprehensive views of China’s new growth pathways toward a success in meeting the 2060 pledge and its long-term development goals. The report maps out the broad outlines of decarbonization and identifies key elements of strategy across the economy and within individual economic sectors. Regarded as one of the five pillars (electrification, energy efficiency, power decarbonization, low carbon fuel substitution, and carbon dioxide removal) to achieve carbon neutrality, electrification, coupled with power system decarbonization, presents not only a feasible option to reach substantial emissions reduction in electricity more quickly than in other sectors but also an opportunity to curb, and eventually reduce final energy consumption. Therefore, EF China has decided to proceed ahead with the deep-dive research into the role of electrification in China’s grand carbon neutrality landscape, and the dynamics of the double transitions of the end-use sector and power sector.

Today, we are even more excited to release our second synthesis report of the series. It is a collaborative achievement of 9 leading international research and modeling teams in climate change and has gathered a pool of experts to review and consolidate the outcome. This report dives into the role of electrification and the associated electricity system transformation in achieving China’s carbon neutrality goals, and identifies sectoral near-term actions and long-term strategies that reflect technology availability, regional disparity, and economic costs. The proposed immediate action, long-term strategy, and policy frameworks will accelerate the electrification and power sector decarbonization and put China on a successful, low-emissions growth pathway.

We stand in a time mixed with opportunities and challenges, competition and cooperation. Sustained research is needed to facilitate China’s decarbonization and economic transition and EF China will continue supporting such endeavor. We will genuinely and unremittingly pursue multi- win solutions with all partners to create, develop, and share a sustainable future and to help narrate China’s “New Growth Story” .

Here, I sincerely congratulate the author team on this marvelous triumph and thank all the expert friends for their continued and wholehearted support of EF China’s development. I would also like to thank EF China’s dream team, without whose efforts this gift cannot come so alive. Thank you!