高盛·生成式AI投资框架（英文）

Cloud computing created new investment opportunities by enabling the delivery of software as a utility. Generative AI further unlocks value as it extends this utility and provides new tools for enhancing end-user productivity. While traditional AI has been helpful in making predictions of outcomes, Generative AI is about generating content such as text, video, images, or computer code, which was previously not possible. Large Language Models (LLMs) are a key enabler of GAI, with a profound level of proficiency and intelligence. AI has the potential to establish new companies, while providing incumbents with new growth avenues by turbo-charging end-user productivity. We estimate a Generative AI Software TAM of ~$150bn, vs. the global software industry TAM of $685bn. The GS Macro team estimates AI could drive ~$7tn in global economic growth over 10 years, underpinned by productivity growing 1.5pp faster annually. We raise our PTs on MSFT (to $325, vs $315 prior), CRM (to $325, vs, $320), and ADBE (to $480, vs. $475) to incorporate higher outer year estimates that reflect our conviction in the success/adoption of newly launched GAI products. Microsoft has clearly taken the tech industry by storm by being first out of the gate with Copilot variations of Microsoft 365, GitHub and Dynamics. Adobe stands to revitalize its growth prospects with the launch of Firefly, while CRM should benefit from a front-office productivity boost. Additionally, we highlight INTU, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, and META as companies best-positioned to succeed in this new AI-driven paradigm.