Allianz+全球经济展望：熄灯！能源危机、政策失误和不确定性（会议演讲PPT）

Economic Outlook: Key Messages

Our previous blackout scenario has now become the baseline scenario: lower growth/higher inflation compared to last forecasts (June) → demand-driven recession after a supply-driven one: global growth back in negative territory in Q4 (-0.1% q/q), followed by shallow recovery (1.5% y/y) in 2023.

Inflation will remain high until Q1 2023 when gas prices are expected to peak, with food and services adding upside pressure. Global inflation to reach 5.3% in 2023 (after close to 8% in 2022)。

Further monetary tightening before major central banks switch to aggregate demand support with several policy rate cuts after mid-2023.

Key political events will bring further volatility and higher geopolitical tensions, notably between US and China –to escalate further providing additional tailwind fuel to current decoupling tendencies.